#soylent | Logs for 2020-02-10
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[00:06:17] * systemd journalctls
[00:27:32] <Runaway1956> Mmmmmmmm - if God didn't want us to eat pigs, he wouldn't have made them so tasty.
[00:28:14] * Runaway1956 loves him some honey and maple glaze on his ham
[00:30:51] <FatPhil> do we have a live boru?
[00:34:54] <FatPhil> when I was a kid the supermarket where I worked (for 1.79/hr, so shut up about your minimum wage), has an amazing honey-glazed brunswick ham. my g/f at the time worked behind the deli counter, so we got any remaining "ends" that the old cheapskate grannies hadn't bought at the end of the day.
[00:35:29] <FatPhil> being ends, there was way more glaze :)
[00:36:26] <Runaway1956> honeyglaze++
[00:36:26] <Bender> karma - honeyglaze: 1
[00:38:14] <Runaway1956> trying to get MacOS running on AMD CPU's - it didn't work the last time, and so far, it's not working this time either
[00:38:32] <Runaway1956> There are guides on the internet that say it will work,
[00:38:50] <Runaway1956> Maybe I need a larger hammer to "hit any key" with
[00:45:21] <Bytram> heh
[00:47:14] <Bytram> One day I was out shopping for groceries and noticed an *incredible* sale on hams. Then it hit me that Easter was just a short while ago, so they were trying to get rid of excess stock before it expired. It was like 20 cents on the dollar compared to normal prices. Picked up a couple huge, pre-cooked, honey-glazed hams and used them for making stews... YUM!
[00:54:34] <FatPhil> nothing better than picking up random special offers and making a huge stew.
[00:55:17] * Bytram is a bit sad. He just finished off, today, the last of the 3 gallons of stew he made last week.
[00:55:32] <FatPhil> i envy your pot collection.
[00:55:38] <FatPhil> I have nothing larger than 5L
[00:56:42] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - AMD's 64-Core Threadripper 3990X Reviewed - https://sylnt.us - I-don't-really-need-one-but-I-sure-do-want-one
[00:56:45] <FatPhil> that does stews for g/f & I for 2 days live and 3-4 days worth popped in the freezer.
[00:57:08] <Bytram> Actually, I did not have the ingredients I thought I had; the pot holds 4 gallons!
[00:59:06] <FatPhil> you're beginning to sound like a soup kitchen!
[00:59:38] <Bytram> Say what?!!!!!!
[00:59:39] <Bytram> https://www.youtube.com
[00:59:40] <systemd> ^ 03Seinfeld: No Soup For You (Clip)
[01:02:36] <AzumaHazuki> there...submitting payment for PTCB cert testing. hopefully will be certified by 1 March this year
[01:02:53] <Bytram> AzumaHazuki++ Woo Hoo!
[01:02:53] <Bender> karma - azumahazuki: 26
[01:03:02] <Bytram> Best of luck to you!
[01:03:03] <FatPhil> terribly racist ambiguous-race accent there!
[01:03:14] <AzumaHazuki> don't cheer me on yet. this is $130 down the porcelain throne if i fuck up
[01:03:43] <AzumaHazuki> i've been getting 80s and 90s on practice exams but there's just no guarantee i won't get very unlucky
[01:04:17] <FatPhil> I won't wish you luck, I will wish you success, AzumaHazuki.
[01:04:36] <FatPhil> (But even then wishes are nothing in reality)
[01:04:52] <AzumaHazuki> thanks...am really scared >< it's probably because i try and do the math mentally instead of using pen and paper but some of this is stonewalling me
[01:05:01] <Bytram> Let me be blunt, if I may? From what I've seen, you are not that good at being that bad! Instead of worrying what could go wrong, I find it more fruitful to actually acknowledge what I have attained.
[01:05:21] * AzumaHazuki is going to eat the freaking study guide
[01:05:35] <Bytram> and there's no guarantee you won't get terribly *lucky* and ace the whole thing!
[01:05:40] <AzumaHazuki> very true
[01:05:52] <Bytram> Yin and Yang
[01:07:58] <Bytram> If I made an offer to you that, for $10, you can buy a ticket that has a 1 in 10 chance to make $5,000... how many tickets would you buy?
[01:08:26] <FatPhil> none, as I'd have bought them all first
[01:08:46] <RandomFactor> Does the second ticket have the same chance?
[01:08:57] <RandomFactor> etc...
[01:09:05] <Bytram> Even if I lost 9 times in a row (*terribly* unlucky!), I'd be willing to buy another 10 chances at those odds!
[01:09:09] <Bytram> RandomFactor: yep
[01:10:27] <Bytram> taking the exam is kind of like buying a raffle ticket. You may not win on the first try, but the value of getting the exam is so much more than the cost, it is more of an investment than anything!
[01:10:44] <RandomFactor> Is it a different $5000?
[01:11:08] * RandomFactor isn't very trusting of such things
[01:11:43] <RandomFactor> Are the proceeds shared with other winners?
[01:13:08] <Bytram> One pot: $5000, tickets: $10 each. 10 tickets. You are the only buyer of tickets. If you don't pass a test on the first try you can take it again, and again. Even buying 10 tickets at $10 each for a total cost of $100 is worth the payoff of $5000, right?
[01:13:49] <AzumaHazuki> yes
[01:13:52] <RandomFactor> Easily
[01:14:04] <Bytram> And any exam that passes, you are done. And if you do not pass, you'll certainly learn something in the process and be all the better prepared for the next attempt!
[01:14:26] <RandomFactor> but i won't make 10/15/30k etc. with more wins
[01:14:53] <Bytram> You only win once (pass the exam)
[01:15:09] <RandomFactor> so then it becomes a case of maximizing probabilities. Not sure where that falls, but at a guess I would probably go for about 30 tickets
[01:17:49] <Bytram> There was this dunk who walked into a bar. Saw a sign that said: "All you can drink: $10" He called over the bartender and said he wanted two of those.
[01:18:25] <AzumaHazuki> okay...scheduled, 2 PM EST on 18 February
[01:18:29] <AzumaHazuki> no going back now...
[01:21:12] <Bytram> AzumaHazuki: You so remind me of me when I was your age. I would spend gobs of energy trying to be prepared for Any. Possible. Contingency. In retrospect, though it may have been difficult, I always made it through in the end. When the going gets tough, the tough get going.
[01:22:34] <Bytram> Determination, Stamina, Grit, and -- quite possibly most important -- Curiosity!
[01:24:01] <RandomFactor> @AzumaHazuki You know how well you test and what type of exam it is. If there isn't some penalty (like you can't take it again for a year or hideously expensive) I would lean towards taking it sooner rather than later also.
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[01:52:23] <AzumaHazuki> there's a "can't take for 60 days" and "pay us another $130, peasant!" penalty
[01:52:34] <AzumaHazuki> i guess i should just keep studying and taking practice exams
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[02:48:15] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Orson Bean, Actor Who Voiced Bilbo and Frodo Baggins, Dies at 91 - https://sylnt.us - R.I.P.
[02:54:19] <Bytram> AzumaHazuki: Yep. I remember studying for my chemistry advanced placement exam in high school. Our teacher complained that he didn't think any of us deserved a "5" (Top score) -- He didn't see that any of us had worked hard enough for it. That weekend I sat down and re-read my chemistry textbook cover-to-cover, including homework assignments... And I got a "5" on the exam. =)
[02:54:59] <AzumaHazuki> this is a bit different...i'm also trying to get the hell out of the US on a Canadian work permit, sooner the better
[02:55:16] <AzumaHazuki> failing and getting delayed another 2 months could be fatal, if things go really bad politically
[02:55:25] <Bytram> In retrospect I discovered how fortunate I was to have such an *excellent* teacher.
[02:55:45] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Orson Bean, Actor Who Voiced Bilbo and Frodo Baggins, Dies at 91 - https://sylnt.us - R.I.P.
[02:56:33] <Bytram> I don't think the Canadians would so upset as to want to kill you if it took you a couple more months to get there!
[03:07:17] <Bytram> https://sylnt.us
[03:07:19] <systemd> ^ 03Orson Bean, Actor Who Voiced Bilbo and Frodo Baggins, Dies at 91 - SoylentNews ( https://soylentnews.org )
[03:07:21] <Bytram> https://sylnt.us
[03:07:22] <systemd> ^ 03Orson Bean, Actor Who Voiced Bilbo and Frodo Baggins, Dies at 91 - SoylentNews ( https://soylentnews.org )
[03:07:48] <Bytram> So... e8b == e8c ??
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[03:50:46] <chromas> I've never noticed that before. Maybe it generates a new one for each update
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[04:01:03] <Bytram> chromas: I had not noticed it before, either! That is why I called it out when I saw it!
[04:02:11] * Bytram loads the link to the ESA live coverage of the Solar Orbiter Launch: http://www.esa.int
[04:04:07] <Bytram> Launch is good
[04:04:13] <Bytram> 41 seconds into flight
[04:04:34] <Bytram> supersonic
[04:04:39] <Bytram> MAXQ
[04:04:54] <Bytram> full thrust again
[04:05:01] <Bytram> SRB burnout
[04:05:29] <Bytram> 2 minutes
[04:05:38] <Bytram> at 1/2 liftoff weight
[04:05:49] <Bytram> SRB jettison
[04:07:04] <Bytram> 200 sec
[04:07:19] <Bytram> 4 km/sec
[04:07:32] <Bytram> 100km elevation
[04:07:46] <Bytram> 5.2 km/s
[04:07:54] <Bytram> Atlas booster cutoff
[04:08:09] <Bytram> Centaur start
[04:08:18] <Bytram> (2nd stage)
[04:09:09] <Bytram> alt: 180 km
[04:09:27] <Bytram> velocity: 5.5 km/s
[04:16:07] <Bytram> MECO centaur
[04:16:45] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Iran Satellilte Launch Fails; ESA Solar Orbiter Launch in 5 Hours - https://sylnt.us
[04:37:01] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Yarn Created From Skin Cells can be Woven into Human Textiles - https://sylnt.us - cannibal-clothing
[04:47:18] <Bytram> 2nd stage restart
[04:48:05] <Bytram> and... that's it for me.
[04:48:13] <Bytram> Have a great night everone!
[04:48:27] <AzumaHazuki> o/
[05:07:23] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Iran Satellilte Launch Fails; ESA Solar Orbiter Launch Successful, so far so good - https://sylnt.us
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[06:36:06] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - US Agencies Using Phone Location Data for Immigration Enforcement, Report Says - https://sylnt.us - they-know-where-you-are
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[07:26:43] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Iran Satellilte Launch Fails; ESA Solar Orbiter Launch Successful, So Far So Good - https://sylnt.us - so-close-yet-so-far
[08:27:29] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - NASA SPIDER Will Build an Antenna in Orbit - https://sylnt.us - so-an-orb-spider?
[10:17:20] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - T-Mobile Continues to Rack Up Customers - https://sylnt.us - maybe-other-carriers-should-try-and-treat-their-customers-right
[11:14:31] <FatPhil> Floating petri dish update: The ship’s captain Stefano Ravera announced Monday that 66 new cases of the virus had been confirmed, bringing the infection total of passengers and crew to 136, roughly equal to all the other cases in Asia outside China. Media reports have claimed more than 2,500 passengers and crew remain aboard the ship.
[11:49:15] <Runaway1956__> Lots of images of the Diamond Princess on the internet - what's not clear is, where is she berthed?
[11:49:51] <Runaway1956__> One comment from a passenger suggests she is at anchor out in the bay, but all images show her tied up quayside,
[11:50:18] <Runaway1956__> and one image showw the ship beneath a bridge, with vehicle traffic overhead
[12:07:39] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - FOSDEM 2020 Presentations Available Online - https://sylnt.us - Hey!-You-better-watch-it!
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[12:14:54] <janrinok> Runaway1956__, the Diamond Princess has been docked in Yokohama for about a week now as part of a 14-day quarantine. A passenger disembarked in Hong Kong who was later found to have the Novel Coronavirus, so all crew and passengers were placed in quarantine. It is brought into dock to unload those who are now showing symptoms so that they can be transferred to hospital, but I think that it returns out into the bay at other times to
[12:14:54] <janrinok> prevent any possible spread of the virus off the ship.
[12:16:38] <janrinok> a quick google will find you all the information that you would want...
[12:53:57] <carny> that quarentine will not be lifted any time soon and there will be hundreds of cases before the authorities step in and evacuate
[12:54:12] <carny> or some people may just try to swim for it
[12:55:15] <carny> they can't keep the infected on board because once there are fatalities on the ship the remaining passengers and crew will mutiny to get off
[12:57:14] <carny> https://www.reuters.com
[12:57:15] <systemd> ^ 03China crude imports hit record; gas imports in first fall in three years
[12:57:20] <carny> 3 months ago
[12:57:29] <carny> https://www.nytimes.com
[12:57:31] <systemd> ^ 03OPEC Scrambles to React to Falling Oil Demand From China
[12:57:37] <carny> 6 days ago
[12:58:59] <carny> there are more people under quarantine in china than the population of the usa
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[13:32:46] <janrinok> So, where do you get the information about mutiny on board the Diamond Princess, or the fact that there will be hundreds of cases before the authorities step in? That is pure speculation and fear mongering. Utter bullshit
[13:34:27] <janrinok> It is the authorities who have already stepped in and are providing medical care for those that develop the full symptoms.
[13:37:21] <janrinok> just stop panicking and spreading rumours please. So far there have been 2 deaths outside of China - why on earth do you thing that requires panic and fear? Of course it will get worse, but so far we haven't even got a car load of people dying outside of the Chinese mainland.
[13:39:45] <carny> there is a difference between panicking and taking crucial measures and when everybody is lying about what is really happening none of them will get done
[13:40:26] <carny> other countries could have prevented the spread outside mainland china if they had accurate information and the courage to act on it
[13:41:29] <carny> instead the ccp lies and everyone else pretends to believe it while the fail to take the necessary steps
[13:42:46] <janrinok> and it would have saved 2 lives - so what is your point? The WHO have dispatched a team to China today - for the very purpose of accurately getting to the bottom of things. Why speculate when there are lots of factual things being done to address the problem. So China lies - that is hardly a surprise.
[13:43:18] <carny> so you think those 2 cases didn't spread the virus to a single other human?
[13:44:00] <janrinok> Not every infection results in death - most people, the vast majority, recover without any serious lasting effects.
[13:44:55] <janrinok> we are reporting that there are tens of thousands of infections - there is no need to go spreading rumours just to make your case sound stronger.
[13:45:19] <carny> even after more than a month international travelers are still only being screened by a questionaire which people can lie about and a flir temperature scan which can potentially be defeated by drugs that temporarily lower body temp
[13:45:57] <janrinok> and still, with all those possibilities, there have been 2 deaths outside of China. Again - what is your point?
[13:46:43] <carny> and that doesn't even address the fact that infected patients can be asymptomatic for two weeks (possibly three but that's still not solid) and get past any screening that doesn't involve a blood draw and a pcr
[13:47:34] <carny> we will see increased cases outside of mainland china in about a week or maybe 2
[13:48:52] <carny> the open question that absolutely nobody wants to ask is does the virus selectively target bronchial receptors that are more common in asiatic phenotypes or not
[13:49:41] <carny> if it does the rest of the world might not see many cases at all but chinese mortality may go even higher than the leaked numbers of 16%
[13:49:58] <janrinok> (possibly three but that's still not solid) - and where is that reported? Can you provide a source?
[13:50:17] <carny> i've been dropping links for days
[13:50:21] <janrinok> Or should we just say 'possible 6 months' and make it sound far worse
[13:50:51] <janrinok> None of your links have stated that fact - although there is considerable speculation.
[13:50:56] <carny> the incubation period is widely reported as "1-14 days" and sometimes "up to 3 weeks"
[13:51:43] <janrinok> where does it say that? We have not seen any authoritative source make that claim.
[13:51:56] <carny> using a range like "1-14 days" is a trick that public health officials use when they want to intentionally fuzz the data so 3rd parties have a much harder time building models
[13:53:03] <carny> here's some more recent links if you actually care about non-propaganda reporting
[13:53:07] <carny> https://imgur.com
[13:53:08] <systemd> ^ 03Chinese start to understand why Hong Kong revolt and regret mocking the protests after Dr. Li's death in Wuhan
[13:56:37] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - How Do Genetic Ancestry Tests Influence Our Concept of Race? - https://sylnt.us - Who-Are-You?
[13:56:48] <carny> ### 2020.02.09@06:36:13
[13:56:48] <carny> <https://imgur.com/gallery/Vc3evCD>
[13:56:53] <carny> Chinese citizen journalist who has told the world about the desperate situation on the streets of virus-epicenter Wuhan has disappeared. YouTube link 26 min video: https://youtu.be
[13:56:55] <systemd> ^ 03ENGLISH SUB Chen Qiushi Wuhan is short of test kits, beds the outbreak is MORE SERIOUS THAN WE THINK ( https://www.youtube.com )
[13:57:36] <carny> i guess you'll say a lawyer and citizen journalist in wuhan is just more rumors right?
[13:59:29] <janrinok> Lol - your source is imgur? You have over the last few weeks made some extraordinary claims - the virus originated in biological warefare centre, governments (note plural, not just China) are hiding the facts. Yet the best that you can come up with is images taken from imgur? Not rumours, but certainly you cannot prove that those people even exist. If you get your news from Youtube and imgur it explains why nobody else is
[13:59:29] <janrinok> reaching the advance stages of fear that you seem to be reaching.
[14:00:18] <carny> but if you really want to know what is going on and compare raw reporting to the official story you can start with that video
[14:00:38] <janrinok> Social media is well known for spreading false stories and rumours - we even covered that in a recent story.
[14:00:44] <carny> i didn't 'claim' the virus originated in biological warefare centre
[14:01:15] <janrinok> I'll go back in the logs and find the exact statement
[14:01:32] <carny> i reported what other people were saying including zerohedge which went as far as getting the guy's online resume and matched it up with the job postings that were still on the website
[14:02:00] <janrinok> But you were 'unable' to provide any verification because that would 'dox' yourself. Remember now, do we?
[14:02:31] <carny> i said i was unwilling to give you personal details about my work history
[14:02:40] <janrinok> Well, almost all the people who have died had 2 legs - shit, it must be the legs that are causing it!
[14:02:57] <FatPhil> breast feeding
[14:03:10] <janrinok> I didn't want personal history - I want to know how you claim to know these things.
[14:03:33] <carny> i've given you plenty of links already
[14:03:45] <carny> i'm not giving you any more information about myself
[14:03:57] <janrinok> from imgur and youtube - thanks, but please continue
[14:04:26] <janrinok> I do not want any information about yourself!
[14:04:37] <carny> ad hominem attacks against sources instead of analysis of reported facts should be beneath you
[14:04:40] <janrinok> But stating something on IRC does not make it a fact
[14:05:15] <janrinok> I am not attacking you - I want to know your sources so that we can report them if they can be proven
[14:05:22] <carny> i think you maybe have a different definition of the english word 'fact'
[14:05:25] <FatPhil> carny - these aren't ad hominem attacks on you, we're simply saying you're a blowhard, that's all.
[14:05:38] <carny> FatPhil: that's fine with me
[14:06:08] <carny> all that matters is that i'm turning out to be right a lot more than the mainstream media and you can take it or leave it
[14:06:08] <FatPhil> You're happy never backing up anything yu say with any facts?
[14:07:03] <FatPhil> It's not even "you" who is "right". You're just repeating memes from the skuzzier side of the internet most of us avoid.
[14:07:43] <carny> i'm taking a lot of possible data and filtering it to make the best analysis i can
[14:08:16] <FatPhil> yet amazingly you're indistinguishable from a reddit poster who can't even spell
[14:08:22] <carny> some of it is probably garbage and some of it is useful
[14:08:44] <carny> if you're not familiar with how that works and why people would do it i guess i can't help you
[14:09:37] <FatPhil> I was modelling diffusion numerically in the 80s, and I can assure you my models for that would be way more accurate than anything that's appeared in the media.
[14:09:51] <FatPhil> However, you need accurate inputs, and at the moment we don't have that.
[14:10:22] <carny> your models probably don't take into account leakers and liars
[14:10:36] <carny> there are other kinds of analysis that don't rely on accurate inputs
[14:11:04] <janrinok> carny, you should get to know the background of the people you are criticising when it comes to mathematical analysis
[14:11:26] <carny> janrinok: you should not put words like mathematical in my mouth
[14:11:35] <carny> i never said mathematical analysis
[14:12:15] <janrinok> FatPhil's analytical abilities are, I know for a fact, significantly better than either of ours
[14:12:39] <carny> i'm sure they are when the data is not prejudiced by humans
[14:13:09] <carny> but so far he has convinced me that he has no clue whatsoever how to deal with data that includes lies and misdirection
[14:13:09] <FatPhil> you flatter me, put that in the past tense and it might be true. 30+ years blunts the mettle somewhat.
[14:13:46] <janrinok> and if you are analysing inaccurate inputs you are unlikely to reach any accurate results unless you start using such techniques as, perhaps Kalman filters
[14:13:53] <carny> FatPhil: here's some math you can start chewing on if you want to use your massive brain to contribute
[14:14:17] <FatPhil> I've been thinking of downloading Steve Keen's "Minsky" package, and seeing if I can build an accurate diffusion-based infection spread.
[14:14:27] <carny> figure out how many workers in the chinese economy need to be infected and out of the work force to account for a 20% drop in petroleum imports
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[14:15:10] <carny> then compare that to the official numbers and estimate the fudge factor the ccp is using when they report cases to the cdc and who
[14:15:18] <janrinok> wow - the goalposts are moving quite quickly now. Why does it matter how much petroleum China is importing when it comes to preventing a pandemic?
[14:15:40] <carny> you're quite a black pot there yourself
[14:15:51] <FatPhil> The only problem is that the presumptions I think would have been good for the first few weeks might start to become false (it seems to have an onion model presently)
[14:15:52] <carny> you moved the goal posts not me
[14:16:14] <janrinok> the effects on the world will be wide and varied, that doesn't mean we are discussing the imports of petroleum
[14:16:45] <carny> i am discussing the imports of petroleum because that is a figure that it is harder for the ccp to lie about
[14:17:05] <carny> and you would understand this if you were an analyst not an internet sjw
[14:17:25] <janrinok> which is totally irrelevant and meaningless when you are stating that the crew and passengers of a ship in Yokohama will mutiny and try to swim ashore
[14:17:39] <FatPhil> they're swimming ashore for the petrol
[14:17:47] <janrinok> lol - you do not know my background either
[14:17:48] <FatPhil> that's what I learnt from professor carny today
[14:17:48] <carny> you're getting desperate now trying to connect distinct discussions ;]
[14:18:01] <FatPhil> No, we're taking the piss.
[14:18:02] <janrinok> YOU raised the imports of petroleum
[14:18:27] <carny> i gave an example of a problem that is suitable for mathematical analysis
[14:19:06] <janrinok> ... and completely irrelevant
[14:19:13] <carny> to you
[14:19:27] <janrinok> to the subject under discussion.
[14:19:30] <carny> because all you care about is repeating official stories and sticking your head in the sand
[14:20:12] <janrinok> You have seen who started the last roundup of coronavirus news, haven't you? But I have to use verifiable sources
[14:20:42] <janrinok> I can just make things up and post a few links to imgur and youtube to prove my case
[14:20:53] <janrinok> i can't *
[14:20:59] <carny> do you honestly consider numbers that come from the ccp to be verifiable sources?
[14:21:15] <janrinok> the stories that we used did not come from CCP
[14:21:31] <carny> you haven't even looked at what i've provided but you're qualified to judge their weight?
[14:22:17] <carny> if you'd bothered to do real investigation you'd see that your so called verifiable sources are using the same numbers that the ccp is releasing and most of them are not questining anything at all
[14:22:23] <janrinok> I have but they are not something that we can verify. Memes can be made by anyone, based on any beliefs or even knowingly false
[14:22:52] <carny> you think that imgur is nothing but memes do you?
[14:23:09] <carny> that's also very telling about your lack of background in this line of work
[14:23:15] <janrinok> no - read imgur every evening. I don't use it as a source of world news though
[14:23:30] <carny> maybe you should try that
[14:23:44] <janrinok> and be as wrong as you are - why should I bother
[14:24:04] <carny> ok what the hell i'm already talking way too much i might as well go the rest of the 9 yards
[14:24:11] <carny> here's your first lesson
[14:25:01] <janrinok> try reading the stories that we do print about abuses of social media, the problems that it has caused and is continuing to cause. The deaths resulting from anti-vaxxers who would have you believe that they know more about medicine than any number of doctors and experts
[14:25:03] <carny> take a bunch of posts on imgur that purport to be from first hand sources like citizen journalists or even just random people reporting things they saw through their window
[14:25:29] <carny> make notes on each of them taking special care to note the time and date when each one appeared
[14:25:58] <carny> come back to each of them after 1 and 7 days and grade them on accuracy
[14:26:23] <janrinok> no, on imgur I will enjoy the dog stories, laugh at the mistakes others have made, shed a tear at the loss of life unnecessarily but I will not take them as my sole source of world news.
[14:26:37] <FatPhil> even if they were accurate, they would be anecdotal
[14:26:47] <FatPhil> my granddad smoked 20 a day until he died at 96
[14:27:18] <carny> there is no such thing as accurate data that has no value FatPhil as i'm sure you know
[14:27:45] <FatPhil> The reason I'm holding off jumping to conclusions is precisely the uncertainty.
[14:27:53] <janrinok> all we ask is that when you make such wild statements is that you provide a source that can be verified please
[14:29:02] <janrinok> otherwise we are simply perpetuating claims made on social media sites that have a very poor level of accuracy
[14:29:28] <carny> the level of accuracy you refuse to measure right?
[14:29:36] <carny> i just want to be clear
[14:29:43] <janrinok> you are, of course, entitled to believe whatever you wish - don't expect us to simply accept such claims though
[14:30:56] <FatPhil> Here's a reliable source, I'd say: https://www.youtube.com
[14:30:57] <systemd> ^ 03Professor Neil Ferguson on the current 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak.
[14:31:45] <carny> all i've tried to do is get people to pay more attention to a potentially deadly pandemic and to not accept the official stories when facts on the ground contradict them
[14:32:24] <FatPhil> and all we're asking for you to do is use a different word than "fact".
[14:32:25] <janrinok> but you cannot demonstrate the 'facts' that you are quoting are true or accurate
[14:32:46] <carny> neither can you
[14:32:47] <FatPhil> I think that's proof we're on the same wavelength - that was simultanious!
[14:32:52] <janrinok> lol
[14:32:52] <FatPhil> janrinok++
[14:32:52] <Bender> karma - janrinok: 62
[14:33:04] <janrinok> FatPhil++
[14:33:04] <Bender> karma - fatphil: 51
[14:34:33] <janrinok> carny, next time you are ill do not seek medical advice - simply ask on imgur, facesplat or twits what you should do. After all, they will tell you the facts, won't they?
[14:34:52] <carny> when i was studying logic and philosophy 'fact' meant a datum that could be demonstrated either true or false because students were expected to understan what falsifiability meant
[14:35:50] <carny> but i guess in today's pc climate a 'fact' is whatever rachel maddow says is true
[14:36:04] <janrinok> defintion Fact: a thing that is known or proved to be true.
[14:36:27] <carny> bloody shame that dictionaries are lowering their standards ;]
[14:36:39] <FatPhil> and here's how you deal with things that aren't et facts: https://www.youtube.com
[14:36:41] <systemd> ^ 03Coronavirus Outbreak: Jonathan Ball, Professor of Virology from University of Nottingham
[14:38:13] <FatPhil> "interesting" "we don't yet know" "looking into", etc.
[14:38:32] <janrinok> still watching, but I agree
[14:39:15] <FatPhil> I don't agree with all the actual academics though. I think the WHO gave bad advice early on.
[14:39:58] <carny> FatPhil: did you watch those videos?
[14:40:17] <carny> the first one said he estimated 50k new infections per day in china
[14:40:25] <FatPhil> Because my best approach to medelling this is diffusion (every problem's a nail), I disagreed strongly with all the "transport bans don't work" that was coming out.
[14:40:45] <FatPhil> carny: yes, and I don't consider it a fact, it's a speculation with a reasonable argument to support it.
[14:41:09] <carny> very good but did you notice that it contradicts the ccp numbers?
[14:41:21] <janrinok> it clearly isn't a fact, it is an estimate. A fact would be the actual counted number
[14:41:26] <carny> kind of like what i've been saying all along?
[14:41:38] <FatPhil> You're straw-manning
[14:41:59] <FatPhil> Noone - *absolutely noone* - has said that they think the CCP numbers are accurate.
[14:42:11] <carny> i'm pointing out an additional source that confirms the working hypothesis which is how humint is done
[14:43:11] <FatPhil> so if petroleum imports are down, then they're decreasing the amount of incineration that they're doing, and the crematoria are going out of business. Yup, got it.
[14:43:42] <carny> lol
[14:43:48] <carny> FatPhil++
[14:43:48] <Bender> karma - fatphil: 52
[14:44:02] <carny> master stroke there
[14:44:52] <carny> i think you'll probably have to get somebody who's outside of ccp control to go to the facilities and confirm they are petrol fueled and not natgas or electric
[14:45:04] <carny> but you're on the right track now
[14:45:08] * FatPhil tips hat for correctly taking it as a joke comment
[14:45:17] <janrinok> which is why the WHO organisation have sent a team todah t
[14:45:28] <FatPhil> The first WHO trip was a farce.
[14:45:35] <janrinok> today to inspect at first hand what is happening and what is being done
[14:46:00] <janrinok> maybe this one will be too, we will have to wait and see
[14:46:25] <FatPhil> I've got an idea - can we acknowledge the existence of Taiwan?
[14:46:34] <carny> the who team will have handlers from the moment they step off the plane and if i had to bet my own money i would put quite a few bucks on there being at least one pla tail actually on each plane a team member gets on back in their home countries
[14:46:53] <carny> because as i'm sure you realize that is sop for the ccp in high profile cases
[14:46:55] <janrinok> well the Chinese have sent aircraft to fly around it today, so they think it is there for sure
[14:47:32] <janrinok> in which case the WHO can say that they were prevented from gaining access and the world can make its own deductions from that.
[14:47:50] <FatPhil> maybe they'd have some "no we're not just kowtowing to china" respect if they recognised the Republic of China.
[14:48:17] <carny> i wonder if they have penetrated the sabre system and can figure out or even manipulate seat assignments ahead of time
[14:48:37] <carny> that's what i would do
[14:48:48] <janrinok> I do not weep for the number of Chinese who will die because of the actions of their own government
[14:49:15] <janrinok> I do weep though for the number of people who will die unnecessarily because a country chose to hide the truth
[14:49:20] <carny> professionals know not to talk on planes when there's somebody sitting behind you who can overhear but these will be doctors not spooks
[14:50:42] <janrinok> I would guess that the spooks will not try killing members of the WHO team just because one of them says something they disagree with. But even the doctors will have enough sense to take notes, ask questions, and wait until it is safe to discuss them
[14:51:17] <carny> lol spooks don't just kill anybody they don't like silly
[14:51:27] <janrinok> ... but if the entire aircraft were to crash, then I would be a mite suspicious
[14:52:10] <carny> the only reason the team would go down in an airline accident would be if another intel org wanted to frame the ccp
[14:52:16] <FatPhil> Is any particular "Y knows that X knows something about Y" really any worse than "X knows something about Y", though. If the WHO guys blab *everything*, it really doesn't give china much opportunity to do anything that makes things worse.
[14:52:47] <FatPhil> "oh know, they know the facts, we're going to have to start being more honest!" - sounds like a benefit.
[14:52:48] <carny> janrinok: are you joking or are you one of those people who thinks that spies and snipers spend most of their time killing their targets?
[14:53:54] <carny> FatPhil: no when i say handlers i mean they will be prevented from talking to anybody who hasn't been vetted ahead of time and they won't even be told about facilities the ccp doesn't want them to visit
[14:54:15] <FatPhil> yup, the previous trip was just like that, they spoke to diplomats effectively.
[14:54:17] <janrinok> carny, I will simply ignore that question
[14:54:21] <carny> the handlers will run all kinds of interference
[14:54:59] <carny> ok i hate to run away just when we're getting somewhere interesting but i just remembered how shit sabre's security culture was so now i'm going to go do something more productive
[14:55:10] <carny> thanks for the inspiring discussion
[14:55:41] <janrinok> ... and when the doctors return they will say that they weren't allowed to speak to those they wanted to speak with, only with those the Chinese wanted them to speak to. It is exactly the same with arms inspections - and, carny, yes I DO know about them...
[15:40:08] <Runaway1956__> cootie spray
[15:40:31] <Runaway1956__> all they need do is teach the children to spray each other for cooties
[15:41:11] <Runaway1956__> We sprayed for cooties when I was a kid - it helped to keep liberalism at bay
[15:45:07] <FatPhil> but got Nixon into power
[15:45:53] <Runaway1956__> Not really - Nixon had mutant cooties
[15:46:28] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Bill Gates Drops $747 Million on Hydrogen-Powered Superyacht - 'Not True' Says Company Building It - https://sylnt.us - not-available-from-the-windows-store
[15:46:51] <Runaway1956__> Nixon was a couple decades ahead of his time - today, everyone records everything, and sell it to the highest bidder
[15:47:46] <FatPhil> That aspect, perhaps. However, he wasn't the great trailblazer of corruption that his fanbois think he was. That office was already tainted.
[15:50:09] <Runaway1956__> Nixon was guilty of having a bodacious nose though.
[15:50:44] <Runaway1956__> For his official portrait, they did the nose first, then added bits around the nose
[15:50:53] <FatPhil> Just following in Lyndon's noseprints
[15:52:43] <Runaway1956__> How can you make fun of the Great Liberator's nose? He single handedly led the darkies off the plantation!
[15:56:28] -!- arti|work [arti|work!~textual@kpku-40-80-465-497.west.biz.rr.com] has joined #soylent
[16:21:07] <FatPhil> You mean bribed them for their votes for 200 years (allegedy)?
[16:28:24] <Runaway1956__> Well yeah, that too FatPhil - except, libbies everywhere argue that The Great Liberator never said that.
[17:04:52] -!- Web_weasel [Web_weasel!~Stefan@dncz95-868-470-316.range45-868.btcentralplus.com] has joined #soylent
[17:35:05] <FatPhil> we can't know, but we can be bayesian. given everything else we know he said, what's the chance that's at least an approximate representation of something that he did say?
[17:36:47] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - CityU New Droplet-Based Electricity Generator: A Drop of Water Lights Up 100 Small LED Bulbs - https://sylnt.us - let-there-be-light
[17:44:40] <chromas> Whatever happened to QDLEDs?
[18:03:21] <Bytram> =g ABC Australia
[18:03:22] <systemd> https://www.abc.net.au - ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
[18:03:27] <FatPhil> QEDs?
[18:03:37] <FatPhil> I thought I'd already demonstrated them.
[18:04:04] <Runaway1956__> Weren't the QED's native to some south Pacific island? Didn't we eat them all?
[18:05:19] <AndyTheAbsurd> =g QED
[18:05:20] <systemd> https://qedastoria.com - Q.E.D. A Place to Show & Tell - Astoria, Queens, New York
[18:05:31] <AndyTheAbsurd> =g QED abbreviation
[18:05:32] <systemd> https://en.wikipedia.org - Q.E.D. - Wikipedia
[18:06:33] <Runaway1956__> Oh, so QED's weren't the lost tribe of Israel, and we didn't cannibalize them?
[18:06:36] <FatPhil> Quod erat demonstrandum - that which was to be shown
[18:07:02] <Runaway1956__> Queen Elisabeth Dermatologists
[18:07:46] <Runaway1956__> They do part time work for Trump and Pelosi as well
[18:37:32] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Bill Gates Drops £500 Million on Hydrogen-Powered Superyacht ; Sinot: 'Not True' [Updated] - https://sylnt.us - not-available-from-the-windows-store
[19:28:10] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Linux 5.6 Is The Most Exciting Kernel In Years With So Many New Features - https://sylnt.us - lots-of-new-and-shiny
[21:15:53] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - Easter Island Society Did Not Collapse Prior to European Contact, New Research Shows - https://sylnt.us - when-did-it-collapse?
[21:33:21] <FatPhil> So - what did people think of /Parasite/?
[21:34:29] <FatPhil> I kinda felt that it was a patchwork of stuff I'd all seen before, just with some new decorations.
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[21:34:54] <FatPhil> It entertained me, so I gave it 5/10 on IMDB.
[21:36:49] <FatPhil> In contrast, /Jojo Rabbit/ was terribly poor, offensively so.
[23:06:11] <Bender> [SoylentNews] - SpaceX's First Astronaut Mission Could Take off in May - https://sylnt.us - at-long-last
[23:14:28] <Bytram> FatPhil: I heard the praise for it around when it came out, but AFAICT, the theater nearest me that was playing it was something like 2 hours away!